Results tagged ‘ Tri-City ValleyCats ’

“Show on the Road” Recap at North Colonie Youth Baseball Fields

Hey, ‘Cats fans! This past weekend we had the pleasure of bringing our favorite parts of “The Joe” to the North Colonie Youth Baseball Fields for our 2014 “Show on the Road” event with Hannaford Supermarkets! Our front office staff and summer interns worked hard to bring the ValleyCats experience into a youth baseball setting filled with games, giveaways and a great cookout. The Challenger Division game kicked off at 5 p.m. and the Major Division game followed at 6:30 p.m. with tons of fun between innings. Fans were able to participate in our NY 529 Puzzle Contest, Pony Hops, Hannaford Hula Hoop Hustle and many more events! Thank you to North Colonie Youth Baseball and Hannaford Supermarkets for welcoming us and helping out with this awesome night.

Check out our video highlights, as well aour favorite photos from the “Show on the Road!” :


DSC_0677IMG_9494 IMG_9503 DSC_0690 DSC_0696 DSC_0705 DSC_0712 DSC_0720 DSC_0724 DSC_0740 DSC_0753 DSC_0758 DSC_0765 IMG_9229 IMG_9253 IMG_9353 IMG_9406 IMG_9412 IMG_9459 IMG_9460 IMG_9572 IMG_9580

What have we learned?

The season is 30 percent complete, and the team is coming off its first official off day. So let’s step back a bit and take a look at what we’ve learned about this year’s ValleyCats so far:

The starting rotation is good. Euris Quezada has not had the best start to the season, going 0-3 with an 8.83 ERA, but the other four-fifths of the rotation has been anywhere from good to excellent. Juri Perez has the highest ERA of the four at 3.55, and this doesn’t feel unsustainable – all four of these pitchers have the stuff and command to be very good at this level. If the ‘Cats can get the fifth spot figured out, it wouldn’t shock me in the least to see this rotation go on a run like the 2010 team did last August, when all five starters had an ERA below three for the entire month. Now that players have had a few starts under their belt, Tri-City and other teams will be more willing to let their starters go into the sixth and seventh innings, which will magnify the Cats’ starting pitching advantage.

The star of the rotation so far has been Kyle Hallock, who has completed at least five innings in every start and has yet to allow more than two earned runs. Anytime you’re among the league leaders in K/9 and BB/9, as Hallock is entering tonight’s start at Batavia, you’re doing something right. The southpaw has 25 strikeouts against two walks, the best such ratio in the league so far, and ranks fourth with a 0.78 WHIP.

If there’s one candidate for regression among the Cats’ top four starters, it may be Jonas Dufek. Check out these splits: with nobody on base, opponents are hitting .410/.500/.645 off Dufek. But with men on, he becomes “Jonasty,” holding hitters to a .158/.200/.211 line. And with men in scoring position? .114/.184/.200. In a nutshell, Dufek has allowed lots of runners to reach base but has pitched extremely well under pressure. That’s great to see from a mental standpoint, but it’s not likely to be sustainable over a full season – if runners keep reaching base, hitters will eventually get lucky and have bloopers or line drives fall in critical situations, and runs will score. (Of course, leadoff batters aren’t likely to keep getting on base 64 percent of the time either, so it all may even out.)

DIPS likes the pitching staff even more. The ‘Cats have done well in all of the “three true outcome” categories – the team ranks fifth in strikeout rate (K/9), fourth in walk rate and fourth in home run rate allowed. Though they rank sixth in ERA, I have them third in the league in FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching). The difference can be explained by a .323 batting average on balls in play, the third-highest in the NYPL.

Now, a major caveat here: when discussing major-league pitchers, BABIP has been shown to have very little predictive value for pitchers – that is, what happens to a ball in play is mostly due to factors that are outside the pitcher’s control. This is not necessarily true for minor-league pitchers. Minor-league players – especially at a low level such as the NY-Penn League – are very different than major-league pitchers, and it would be reasonable to think that some minor-league pitchers consistently throw pitches that are more likely to go for base hits. (These pitchers would usually be weeded out before reaching the majors.)

In short: while the strong fielding-independent statistics and the high BABIP do suggest that the pitchers have been unlucky (and/or that the defense behind them has been poor), the evidence for that is not as strong as similar major-league numbers would be.

The offense needs improvement. This isn’t as clear-cut as you might expect: the ‘Cats actually rank eighth in the league with 4.43 runs per game, though they’re closer to eleventh (Brooklyn) than seventh (Hudson Valley). What’s not obvious is how exactly they’re doing it. Tri-City ranks 12th in batting average (.236), 12th in slugging percentage (.326) and tied for 10th in on-base percentage (.319), a profile that doesn’t usually lead to a league-average offense.

Only one team has left fewer runners on base than the ‘Cats. You could make a convincing argument that the ValleyCats are one of the better baserunning teams in the league, and generally good lineup construction has helped, but it’s hard to escape the feeling that some of this simply comes down to the team getting timely hits at a rate that may not be sustainable.

Plate discipline is not the problem. It feels like batters have watched a lot of third strikes go by at Joe Bruno Stadium this year, and fans of every team feel like their hitters strike out too much, but the ValleyCats’ problem is not their pitch recognition. The ‘Cats are striking out in a tick under 18 percent of their plate appearances, one of the best marks in the NYPL and well below the league average of 20 percent. They have drawn 83 walks against 155 strikeouts, the third-best ratio in the league.

But the ‘Cats just aren’t doing enough when they make contact. Despite playing in Joe Bruno Stadium, recently the league’s best home run park, Tri-City ranks dead last in the league with six dingers, even after hitting three in its last two games. I’d expect a better showing than that in the final 53 games – powerful hitters like Brandon Meredith and Kellen Kiilsgaard will hopefully return to the lineup, and guys like Zach Johnson and Miles Hamblin have shown the potential to hit for more power than they have so far – but this isn’t an offense that will be having too many one-swing rallies.

These outfielders can throw. Okay, we knew that from the start. Drew Muren leads the league with five outfield assists, and Justin Gominsky is tied for second with four. As a team, the ‘Cats have a league-best 11 outfield assists in 23 games, which the pitching staff must love.

Guess what? The ValleyCats have been unlucky. At this time last year, the ValleyCats were 9-14, but they had scored roughly as many runs as they had allowed. I argued that they would play better for the rest of the season, and sure enough they did, greatly surpassing even my expectations.

Well, it’s a year later, and the ValleyCats are 9-14. And guess what? They’ve only been outscored by two runs (104-102). Run differential is a better predictor of future performance than wins and losses. It certainly doesn’t mean another miraculous playoff run is coming – and a slew of difficult opponents in the next two weeks won’t make it easy for the ‘Cats to make a charge soon – but it means we should expect them to play more like a .500 team for the rest of the season than a .400 team. (14-8 Vermont, incidentally, has outscored its opponents by only one run, meaning the Lake Monsters could come back to the pack in the Stedler Division.)

So although 2011 hasn’t started the way the ValleyCats and their fans would have liked, we could still see some good baseball at “The Joe” over the final seven weeks of the season.

Kevin Whitaker

Potential Playoff X-Factors

The ValleyCats find themselves 0.5 games up on the
Connecticut Tigers and 1.5 games up on Vermont. Assuming things stay the same,
which they might not (the ValleyCats finish up the season in Brooklyn, the best
team in the NYPL, Connecticut takes on Aberdeen, and Vermont takes on the
Yankees after finishing up their five-game series with the Cyclones),
the ‘Cats will go roaring into the playoffs and take on the Batavia Muckdogs
(who went 18-11 in August).

Batavia took two out of the three games in Troy, the only
series these two teams have played against each other so far this season. The
Muckdogs hit almost .300 in that series and drove in 20 runs against the
ValleyCats pitching staff (12 off the relievers). That’s the bad news. The good
news is, with the exception of Murillo Gouvea, the starters only gave up three
earned runs (the Muckdogs scored the only unearned run off of Tom Shirley this
season) in nine innings. Also, the ValleyCats pitching staff held, at the time,
perennial MVP candidate Nick Longmire to a .214 average. Since then Longmire
has cooled off considerably. His average dropped to .290 after batting .255 in
August. And keep in mind this series came back in early July, a little bit
before the ValleyCats started to heat up.

If the ValleyCats make it that far and want to beat the
Muckdogs it won’t take a superhero effort. Tri-City has been one of the best
teams over the past month and a half. The pitching has been phenomenal and the
hitting is really starting to come around. But it might take something extra to
beat Batavia. Here’s a list of potential x-factors:

Appologies to Ben
Orloff, Dan Adamson, Tyler Burnett, Carlos Quevedo, and Bobby Doran. They have
been consistently good all year long. They don’t count as x-factors.

Austin Wates -

Wates is one of the players the ValleyCats did not have the
first time around, and I’m sure Jim Pankovits is ecstatic that the Hokie will
be there for the playoffs if the team can get there. Wates is just a pure
athlete and does almost everything exceptionally well. Granted, this is a small
sample size, but he has adjusted well to the pro level (7-23, .309 BA, 2 2B).
He is also one of those guys that can turn a walk into a double. In eight games
so far Wates has five stolen bases, including three in one game against Lowell.
He’s a distraction for any pitcher on the mound. He makes pitchers throw over
and keep the focus on him, and that usually bodes well for ValleyCat hitters.
Wates has been on base 12 times, including walks, and has scored seven runs.
You do the math. When Wates gets on, the odds are in his favor to score.

 

Adam Bailey -

I have been waiting for Bailey to break out of his shell for
the entire season, and the playoffs would be a great time to do it. Bailey has
arguably the best power out of anyone on the ValleyCats this year (this
includes when Ben Heath was on the team). He has hit some of the furthest home
runs I’ve seen in batting practice (I’m talking clearing both walls in RF and
sometimes going over the Dunkin’ Donuts cup). Bailey is hitting only .225 in
August, but leads the team in doubles and has eight RBI. In his last three
games, Bailey is 6-13 (.462) with a double and an RBI. Bailey also gives you
flexibility at the corner outfield position and has a cannon for the arm. He can
limit the runners scoring from third on a fly ball.

 

Kik Hernandez -

I know. I know. Evan, what are you thinking? Kik has been
one of the best players on the ValleyCats this year. Here’s the thing though,
I’m not too sure he will be back for the playoffs. He sprained his ankle in a
game against Hudson Valley on August 28, and hasn’t been back since. Last we
saw him he was on crutches, which isn’t a good sign. He is only on this list because he is injured. But, if he makes it back and is 100% healthy for the playoffs the
ValleyCats could be very dangerous. You could argue Kik has been one of the
most valuable players on the ‘Cats this season with the way he has played. He’s
really started to hit lately, and has even added power. He is a great defensive
option out there at second base. We all wish Kik a speedy recovery.

 

Alex Sogard -

I felt like I needed to include a pitcher and it came down
to Sogard, David Martinez, and Mike Ness. The nod goes to Sogard because he is
a lefty. Alex has been one of the best arms out of the bullpen this year. His
versatility gives you a guy out there that can come in and stifle the
opposition if the starter isn’t doing well. Or he can come in during a pressure
situation. Before his last outing on August 29 against Hudson Valley (2.2 IP, 5
hits, 3 runs, 2 earned), he had only surrendered four hits and had not let up a
run in seven straight appearances, covering a span of 13 innings! Sogard
dominates lefties (.229 average against, 0.68 ERA), but can come in against
either side and keep batters off the basepaths.

 

The ValleyCats are on the verge of making their first
playoff appearance since 2006. If they can get there, I believe they could make
some serious noise and get to the championship.

 

Evan Valenti

Reinforcements Have Arrived

Words almost cannot express how excited Kevin Whitaker was
when the Astros selected Austin Wates in the third round, 90th
overall, in this year’s draft. I was sitting next to him during our live chat
and he was astonished, to say the least, when he realized that Wates had fallen
that far. Kevin and I had watched film and studied most of the top talents that
were available to the Astros (and occasionally watched some Bryce Harper
footage just for the wow factor), and
Wates was considered one of the top college bats in the entire draft. And
Houston got him at 90! He will arrive here in Troy tomorrow afternoon.

In Keith Law’s draft-day chat, Kevin asked him if he liked
the Wates signing:

Love it. Teams doubt his ultimate position
- no real evidence he can play CF beyond his speed, and he doesn’t look great
out there in practice. But at 90, you have to take a chance on that swing and
plate discipline”.

Did the Astros just draft another J.D. Martinez and get one of the
biggest steals of the draft? Possibly.

BaseballBeginnings.com has been studying and watching Wates for years
and they have been a fan for a long time. John Klima, a contributing writer for
Baseball Beginnings, had this to say about the former Hokie:

I loved Virginia Tech outfielder Austin Wates when I saw
him on the Cape in 2009. For my money, I want guys who give me more than one
tool. Obviously they have to hit, but I want guys who can help the club win in
more ways that one”.

There’s that “love” word again. Seems like Keith Law isn’t the only
one that thinks the Astros might have gotten one of the best players in the
draft. Wates is a four-tool player. He has above-average speed, great plate
discipline, can hit to the gaps, should hit for average, has great range, and
has an average to above-average arm. What is there not to like? Here’s the rest
of the Baseball Beginnings scouting report on Wates (numbers are based on an
80-point system, with 80 being the highest and 20 being the lowest):

Austin Wates 



PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
: Average height, lean, long and loose athletic
frame, loose hands and wrists, much physical projection in front of him.



STRENGTHS
: Above-average speed, good first step out of the box, graceful and
controlled runner. Good hands, line-drive approach, modest power, should have
gap-to-gap ability. Average arm, good accuracy. Rangy defensive outfielder, can
play all three OF positions.



WEAKNESSES
: Doesn’t have one glaring tool weakness.



SUMMARY
: Excellent all-around OF prospect with above-average speed,
athleticism and hitting ability. Lack of well above-average power shouldn’t
dissuade a team from giving him an opportunity. 



GRADES
(Present/Future):

Hit – 40/60


Power – 35/60?

Run – 70/70?

Arm – 50/50?

Field – 50/60



Overall Future Potential – 60


So he has no glaring weaknesses? Sign me up and put him out on the field ASAP.
The talk amongst Kevin and I put him in left field, giving the ValleyCats an
outfield of Wates (LF), Adamson (CF), and Bailey (RF) for the playoff push. Add
Wates to an offense that is raking the ball in August (seventh in overall
batting average at .256, third overall in RBI with 67, and first in both
categories in the Stedler Division), and you have a team that, combined with
excellent pitching, could make a serious run in the playoffs.

Did the Astros draft a better version of J.D. Martinez (Wates is
better defensively and has a lot better speed)? Only time will tell.
But if Wates comes as advertised, the Astros could have a phenomenal outfield
for the future with J.D. in left and Wates in right.

Evan Valenti

What the Trade Deadline Means to Astros Farm System

Disclaimer: This blog
entry is really long. It is not for the faint of heart. You might want to get
some food, maybe something to drink (coffee, Red Bull), and get comfortable. I
did not expect this to be long, but things happen. Enjoy.

The Astros traded two players right before the deadline that
were pivotal parts of the World Series team in 2005 in Roy Oswalt and Lance
Berkman. Oswalt could have become the team’s all-time leader in wins, but was
traded to Philly before he could do so, and Berkman is one of the best power
hitters that the Astros have ever seen. Almost every Astros fan has mailed this
season in (you’re delusional if you haven’t – it would take an Athletic effort
circa 2002 and then some to save the season) and the front office seems to be
on the same page. Throughout the week the beat writers over at the Houston
Chronicle (Richard Justice, Bernardo Fallas and Zach Levine) have expressed
their gratitude for Oswalt and Berkman. Let’s face it, these are two of the greatest players Houston has ever seen. Berkman hit over 300 bombs
for Houston in his 12 seasons (hit 45 in ’06) and Oswalt had 143 wins over a
span of 10 years (including 20 wins twice). These guys were some of the most
dominant and feared players in the entire Major Leagues in the early part of
the 2000′s. But as much as it hurts, those guys are gone and might not ever be
back (even though Berkman has said he loves playing in Houston) so Ed Wade,
Drayton McClane, and the rest of the Astros front office need to look towards
the future. What does that entail? Oh, I’ll tell you.

Houston got a bevy of
players in these two deals, none of which I expect to land on the ValleyCats ever,
but some could have a huge impact on the Major League club.

The Astros got some quality back from the Phillies in the
trade for Oswalt. First, they got J.A. Happ, a guy that in his first full
season with Philadelphia went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA, including three complete
games (two shutouts). He was the runner up for the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year
behind Chris Coghlan (who batted .321 in his first stint in the Majors – that’s
unbelievable). Kevin Goldstein of Baseball
Prospectus
says of Happ:

“He
succeeds on deception and location, placing his 88-90 mph fastball in all four
quadrants of the strike zone, adding and subtracting speed to keep hitters off
balance, and altering his release to add sinking or cutting action.”

So in a
word, he has the potential to be filthy (he showed that capability last
season). He does exactly what you want a pitcher to do. He can locate the
fastball, keep it down, has an arsenal of pitches, and can keep hitters off
balance by varying speed on all of his pitches. I’m not saying he is going to
be an ace, even though he could turn into one, but he would be a great number
three behind Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez.

Next:
Brett Wallace. Going into this season, Wallace was ranked the 20th
best overall prospect this year by ESPN’s Keith Law (who is one of my favorite
writers of all time) and 27th by Baseball
America
. The Blue Jays traded Michael Taylor, a guy they got from Philly in
the Roy Halladay trade, for Wallace in the offseason, and Wallace did pretty
well playing for the Las Vegas 51′s (batted .301 in 95 games). With this
pickup, it seems like the Astros have their first baseman for the future.
According to KLaw, Ed Wade seems to have made a good decision:

He’s an advanced hitter who has been
adequate in Triple-A this year but hasn’t raked as I would have expected, given
what a good hitter’s park that is. However, he has an outstanding swing and
controls the strike zone well, doesn’t show the platoon split so common in
left-handed hitting prospects and was just 23 in Triple-A. He’s twice as
valuable a prospect as Gose. Despite concerns over his lateral mobility, he’s a
capable first baseman who will hit for average, get on base and have enough
power to be an above-average or better player there.”

Next: Mark
Melancon (I apologize to anyone that is a Yankee fan that listened to my
broadcast the other night – I murdered his name). Melancon is a power righty
that started his career in the New York-Penn League. He closed out the
championship game for the Staten Island Yankees in 2006, and has climbed the
ladder every year since. He doesn’t have the stamina to be a starter or long
reliever, but he could potentially be a great set-up guy to Matt Lindstrom. He
throws hard (92-95 mph) and his curveball is his strikeout pitch. Here’s
Law’s
scouting report
:

Mark Melancon‘s arm action is a train
wreck, but he has power stuff, including a 92 to 94 mph fastball, a power curve
in the low- to mid-80s and a hard change. On the right night, he’ll show three
above-average pitches. He had good control throughout his minor league career
but has seen his Triple-A walk rate nearly triple this season. He’s already had
Tommy John surgery in 2006, and his delivery is not easy on the elbow, so I
wouldn’t be shocked if he got hurt again. But until then he’s a potential
late-game option for Houston, possibly even a cheap closer.”

So with these
trades it looks like the Astros picked up a mid-rotation starter (who could end
up being an ace down the road), the first baseman of the future (who hasn’t
reached his full potential yet), and a back-of-the-bullpen guy (who could be a
closer or burn out his arm). What this means is Houston has finally committed
to getting younger all around and are fully committed to player development, so
guys at any level could have a shot at making the big leagues. Look at everyone
here in Troy. Any of them could turn into the next big thing for the Astros.
It’s all wide open!

The infield is
replaceable with maybe the exception of Brett Wallace and Chris Johnson (a former
ValleyCat). Johnson has been a stud so far this season (.341 in 39 games this
season), so maybe third base is locked up if he can keep this going, but I want
to look at the middle infield.

Second base: Jeff
Keppinger is having a good season this year for the Astros at second (batting
.291), but he’s 30 years old. He is not the future. The second baseman for the
Round Rock Express (AAA affiliate of the Astros) is Matt Kata. Kata is having a
decent season so far in 2010. He is hitting .277 with 20 doubles in 104 games.
Here’s the problem: he’s 32 years old! If he even broke through to the Majors,
he’d play what, one or two good years, maybe? He is not the answer at second for
the Astros.

Corpus Christi has a guy named German Duran. In 64 games for the Hooks this
year he is hitting .284, but his slugging percentage is not much higher. And
again, he’s a little old for someone that is going to be the second baseman of
the future. Typically you would want someone that is going to be around for a
while. He has made it as high as AAA, but did not produce at that level. Let’s
say he has a good season with the Express next season. So he cracks the big
leagues at 28? Not the solution.

Here’s my point:
it looks like the future second baseman is coming from, at the highest,
Single-A (even if they sign DeShields). There is a whole mess of second basemen
in Single-A, including a ton of former ValleyCats (Barry Butera, Andrew
Simunic, and Jose Altuve). Right now Albert Cartwright leads all candidates. He
was just promoted to Corpus Christi after batting .319 with Lancaster JetHawks.
He had 26 doubles, 13 triples, and 10 homers, which are awesome numbers for a
second baseman. He is turning 23 in October, so age is not a factor, but he has
committed 20 errors so far this season (which is the most in the California
league by eight). But if I had to pick a runner-up, it has to be Kik&eacute Hernandez. He is a great hitter, is creeping up for
the league-lead in doubles, is pretty good defensively, and oh yeah, he is only
18 years old! He has so much time and room for improvement. Power develops in
your 20′s, so imagine the numbers he’ll put up if he starts hitting home runs.
Look out!

At this point, if
you are still reading this props to you. Typically blogs are not really wordy.
Like I said earlier, I did not expect this entry to be nearly this long. I got
caught up in the whole thing and ideas kept coming out. I can break down each
position for everyone depending on the reaction of the public. So positive
comments = break down position-by-position.

The Astros are
turning the page on this season and opening a new chapter to hopefully bring
this team back to a World Series. They traded some big contracts away, opening
up the books to sign high draft picks (like DeShields). It might take a while,
but the talent is out there. There is some right here in Troy that could
easily be playing in the Majors in a few years.

Evan Valenti

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