Archive for the ‘ Dailies ’ Category

Field Renovations Continue

The 2010 season may have come to an end, but the ‘Cats community involvement continued this afternoon. Today, members of the Tri-City ValleyCats front office began the two-day process of “rehabbing” the Averill Park High School baseball field.

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The field has been in use since 1997, so it was in “rough condition” according to many. The Averill Park Warriors‘ Varsity, Junior Varsity, and Freshman baseball teams all utilize this diamond.

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Renovations include rebuilding both the pitchers mound and homeplate…

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The infield dirt will be rehabbed and the grass will be over-seeded…

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The baselines will be edged and finished…

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In March, the ValleyCats helped to renovate Brunswick Little League as part of their Field Renovation Program.

Here’s the story:

http://www.facebook.com/v/542851554492

Champions

The ValleyCats are champions of the first time in New York-Penn League history. Let me say that again so we all understand what just happened. The Tri-City ValleyCats are the 2010 champs!

Wait a minute. I need to slow down here so this can fully resonate. At one point in July the ValleyCats were 9.5 games out of first. Fast-forward a few months and the ‘Cats just swept the best team, statistically, in the entire league in front of their home crowd. Did that really just happen?

Oh yes it did. And how sweet it is.

After waiting a few days due to the rain, the ‘Cats took the field on Tuesday night with one thing on their mind: We are not coming back here tomorrow night. We will finish this tonight. This slogan came down from Coach Jim Pankovits and each player took that mindset and showed it on the field. The ValleyCats dominated the Cyclones, and I say that with conviction.

It was ace vs. ace in game two as Carlos Quevedo took the hill against Yohan Almonte, a rematch of a game back on July 19 (a game the ‘Cats won 7-4). Quevedo got the best of the Cyclones then and he did again on Tuesday night. Carlos was magnificent and stifled everyone in the Brooklyn offense not named Darrell Ceciliani (7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K).

“This is the biggest win of my career, my life,” Quevedo said. “I’m going home to Venezuela and give this gift to my mom.”

The offense, led by Kik&eacute Hernandez, exploded for 11 hits and five runs as the ‘Cats flexed their muscle to become champions for the first time in team history.

I’ll admit, seeing the ValleyCats raise the trophy was the highlight of my night, but there was something else I relished just as much as the win.

Much of the Brooklyn media members and Cyclones staff did not give the ValleyCats much of a chance to win this game. And why would they? Brooklyn had been the best team all year. They have the MVP on their team (Ceciliani) and the two top ERA leaders (Almonte and Angel Cuan). And on top of all of that they are unbeatable at home (30-8 in the regular season at MCU Park). The ValleyCats on the other hand barely made the playoffs and Brooklyn handled the ‘Cats in the regular season (Tri-City was 2-4 against the McNamara Division Champions). Like I said on the air it was a true David vs. Goliath match up.

Here’s the thing though: This was a short series. Any team can win a best-of-three. You see this happen all the time in baseball, which is why I didn’t really understand the cockiness. Nevermind the Cyclones were already down 1-0.

So when the ValleyCats jumped out to a 3-1 lead, and with Quevedo pitching the way he was, I knew that Tri-City had a great chance to take home the trophy.

Then came the hit that broke the camel’s back.

With two outs in the seventh inning, Adam Bailey hit a rocket to right-center field off of Angel Cuan (a ball hit so hard that if he pulled it to right field it would have landed a few rows back in the bleachers). Two runs came around to score as the ValleyCats took a 5-1 lead, a lead that the bullpen could easily hold. As Bailey trotted into second base you could see the Brooklyn media wave the white flag. Heads dropped and shoulders sunk because they knew that the Cyclones were going to go home empty handed.

Jorge De Leon came in and pitched a perfect eighth, and the ‘Cats were three outs away from pulling off what people would have deemed impossible two months ago. Mike Ness entered in the ninth inning and had to face some of the most dangerous hitters in the NYPL this season. Ness, who picked up the save in the 1-0 pitchers duel to beat Batavia, saw this as a challenge and did not disappoint. He induced a 5-4-3 double play to end the game as the masses mobbed him on the hill in celebration.

It was a truly magical season with ups and downs. The ValleyCats looked “anemic” back in June, but through grit and hard work Tri-City persevered and have now won the NYPL’s greatest prize, something that Ben Zobrist and Hunter Pence could not do. After watching this team grow as a unit and finally come out on top, I only have one thing to say:
Congratulations. You all earned it.

Make sure you stay tuned as Kevin and I dish out awards for this ValleyCats team, including who we think is the most MLB-ready prospect on the team.

Evan Valenti

Championship-Bound

Andrew Moss should have been a playoff hero.

Moss, starting the decisive Game Three of the NYPL semifinals for Batavia, became just the league’s second pitcher this year to throw a nine-inning complete game. He allowed just four hits – one a grounder that took a bad hop, another a dribbler past the mound – and did not walk a single batter. He needed only 89 pitches to complete the game, retiring the final 16 Tri-City batters in order and only once going to a three-ball count. With the league’s best offense behind him, the one-run performance should have been more than enough to send the Muckdogs on to the championship.

Instead, the Muckdogs are done, and Moss gets a big “L” in the box score. Becuase the ValleyCats’ pitching – its strength all season – came up huge at the biggest possible time. Jake Buchanan threw seven scoreless innings and Michael Ness shut out the hosts in the eighth and ninth, and the ValleyCats are playing for the title for the third time in seven seasons.

“Our pitching has carried us all year, and it was apropos that we won with it,” manager Jim Pankovits said. “I can’t remember a player or a pitcher who has stepped up like Jake Buchanan last night. It was unbelievable.”

Buchanan fanned six Muckdogs, all swinging, while only walking one – a two-out free pass in the seventh to Jon Rodriguez, who entered the game 7-for-10 in the series. He allowed only three hits: Chris Edmonson’s bloop single in the first, Victor Sanchez’s dribbler down the line in the fourth, and a hard grounder by Juan Castillo in the third, which probably should have been scored an error on third baseman Tyler Burnett.

“He had his best stuff [last night],” catcher Chris Wallace said. “His two-seamer and his change-up were giving them fits, and he did a great job locating his pitches. They didn’t stand a chance.”

The ‘Cats only scored one run: Tyler Burnett came home all the way from first on Adam Bailey’s two-out, fourth-inning double, aided when Edmonson slipped and struggled to pick up the carom off the wall. But it would be the only score they needed. Batavia, which racked up 41 hits in the first two games of the series, managed only three on Thursday. No Muckdogs made it past first base.

The 55 degree temperature, combined with the inward-bound wind and a large ballpark, provided pitcher-friendly conditions. Thursday’s pitcher’s duel, which was finished in just 97 minutes, was the polar opposite of Game 1 in Troy – a 10-9, extra-inning slugfest.

“The weather the last couple of days over there was nasty,” Pankovits said. “But we persevered, played very solid defensively, and we got some timely hits, and last night the pitching came through.”

“I used the weather to my advantage: I wasn’t afraid to pitch inside and go after them,” Buchanan said. “My two-seam fastball was good, running in and jamming them.”

As it turned out, Buchanan didn’t need any help from the elements: of the 16 balls put in play off the righty, 13 were on the ground (including 11 of 13 outs). Closer Mike Ness, however, was thankful for the conditions when his first pitch was driven to deep right-center by designated hitter Geoff Klein. The ball – which would have been a no-doubt homer at Joe Bruno Stadium – died on the warning track, and Adam Bailey ranged over from right field to make the catch.

Ness hit Edmonson – his former teammate on the Pittsfield Dukes – with one out in the ninth, but fanned Sanchez and Nick Longmire to end the game.

The Tri-City victory is likely the last NYPL contest that will be played at Dwyer Stadium. Rumors are that the Muckdogs – which averaged a league-lowest 1,100 fans this season – will be relocated in 2011. Only 600 fans were on hand for Thursday’s winner-take-all playoff game.

Brooklyn comes to “The Joe” on Saturday after clinching with a 6-4 victory on Thursday, overcoming a 1-0 deficit to defeat Jamestown in three games. The Cyclones, who finished the season with a league-best 51-24 record, are the clear favorite on paper, but the ValleyCats have been surprising people for six weeks now.

“I don’t know if all that matters now,” Bailey said. “It’s a new slate now that we’re in the championship. A lot of people didn’t think we’d be here, so we have a lot to prove.”

Saturday’s game willl start at 7 pm, and will be followed by fireworks.

Kevin Whitaker

Pennant Chase Postmortem

Me, on 7/5:

Given how strong Vermont has looked – the Lake Monsters are off to an unbelievable 14-3 start, with eight consecutive wins – the ValleyCats’ slim playoff hopes probably rest on the wild card.

Me, on 7/15:

Vermont has already all but clinched the Stedler Division. [...] The ValleyCats’ playoff hopes look awfully slim, despite [the good run differential] – their recent bad fortune has left them 4.5 games back and behind seven other teams in the wild-card race, which is a very difficult hurdle to overcome under any circumstances.

Me, on 7/28:

[The ValleyCats'] playoff chances, however, are still very remote. Even if the ValleyCats played like the league’s best team in the second half, they would finish at 41-35 or so. Five teams are currently on pace to have a better record than that, and another two aren’t far behind, so they would still probably have no better than a 50-50 shot at reaching the postseason.

Evan, on 8/13:

If you had told me back in the beginning of July that, come August, the ValleyCats would have a shot to win the division, I would have had you declared officially insane. [...] It was July 10 and most fans were already hoping for the wild card.

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One month into the season, it was not exactly likely that the ValleyCats would be playing meaningful games in September. They stood at 11-18 on the morning of July 19, 9.5 games behind Vermont. The Lake Monsters had cooled off slightly – it would have been impossible to do otherwise after a 14-3 start – but still had a firm hold on the Stedler Division. Tri-City was also well behind Connecticut in the division and trailed several teams in the wild card, and looked headed for a third-place finish.

There were some signs that things might turn around. The ‘Cats were unlucky in close games, and their strong run differential portended better things for the future. Meanwhile, their offense was bound to improve, while their pitching staff was one of the league’s best.

You can trace the ValleyCats’ turnaround to a late-July game at Vermont. Nearing the end of a seven-day road trip that had proven less than fruitful to that point, they found themselves in a 7-3 hole to the Lake Monsters, after ace Carlos Quevedo suffered his worst start of the season. But the ‘Cats battled back, striking for three runs in the seventh and two on a Mike Kvasnicka single in the eighth to win a 10-8 slugfest. Bobby Doran picked up his first win the next night to complete an unlikely sweep.

After the great weekend, fellow VCN member Chris Chenes proclaimed that the ValleyCats would make the playoffs. Evan and I thought he was crazy. We were both optimistic about their future, but the math seemed too daunting – they still trailed the Lake Monsters by 7.5 games (with only two head-to-head matches left), and the wild card was looking less and less attainable as the Pinckney Division teams pulled away from the pack. 

Recent history doesn’t matter a whole lot in the minors – teams change almost completely from year to year. What little difference it does make, however, certainly seemed to go against the ValleyCats. Tri-City was coming off three consecutive last-place finishes, and indeed no Houston affiliate had reached the playoffs since 2007*. But Chris stuck to his guns, and would eventually be vindicated. 
*The manager on that pennant-winning Salem Avalanche? None other than our own Jim Pankovits.

Tri-City was in danger of losing its next series, a three-game home set against Lowell, when they trailed the rubber match 5-1 in the seventh inning. Such a loss, particularly on their home field, would have been very disappointing for the ‘Cats, as the Spinners had not yet won a series all season. But Adam Bailey belted the team’s first (and only) grand slam to tie the game, and Dan Adamson sent the fans home happy, leading off the 11th inning with a walk-off homer.

The ‘Cats swept another two-game set with Vermont early in August, then embarked on a six-game road trip to Mahoning Valley and State College. They lost slugger Ben Heath to promotion midway through the trip, yet ended it on a high note by winning the last two to split the six games. Tri-City allowed just eight runs over the final five games of that trip, which manager Jim Pankovits credits as the point where his team really started its comeback:

About that time, we had made some adjustments to the rotation and started to go to a more regular lineup, and I think we just got on a roll. We played very well that series, and it continued to a couple more series when we came home. The game of baseball is a really streaky game, and we got on a really good hot streak about then.

The ValleyCats then returned to Joe Bruno Stadium, where they won 11 of their final 15 games, and won series against Williamsport – then leading the Pinckney Division – and Staten Island. The All-Star break did little to cool their momentum, as they swept Connecticut on the road, pulling back to .500 for the first time since the first week of the season. More importantly, they passed Connecticut to take second place in the division, and stood only 1.5 games back of the Lake Monsters.

That paved the way for a thrilling, topsy-turvy stretch run:

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Shown above are my playoff odds on each day for the final two weeks. The ValleyCats swept a home-and-home with Connecticut – taking the latter on a heartbreaking two-error eleventh inning by shortstop Brett Anderson – pushing the Tigers three games back and seemingly knocking them out of the race. But Connecticut would not quit, proceeding to take three at Vermont while the ValleyCats dropped three of their own at Hudson Valley, an extremely unlikely turn of events that left the Tigers right back int he thick of things. The division was still completely up for grabs heading into the last week of the season.

The ValleyCats more or less saved their season in their home finale, pulling out a 14-inning thriller on the heels of a 12-inning defeat to Hudson Valley. Two extra-inning losses would have left the ‘Cats deep in third place and in an unenviable position to embark on a season-ending, six-game road trip.

Instead, Chris Wallace doubled to the left-field wall in the 14th, his third huge hit of the series. Bailey followed with his third hit of the game, a single to right field, and Wallace slid home just inches in front of the tag. Bailey was far from the ValleyCats’ most consistent hitter this season – his batting average was just a point above the Mendoza Line entering that game – but he would be critical down the stretch, racking up a league-high 14 hits in the final week of the season.

The ValleyCats then swept Lowell, while Connecticut improbably did the same to Aberdeen to remain a half-game back. Vermont, meanwhile, dropped four of five at Brooklyn to be all but eliminated from the race. The two teams switched places on Friday, setting the stage for a remarkable Saturday. The ValleyCats took an 8-7 slugfest at Brooklyn – with the key hit, naturally, provided by Bailey – wihle the Tigers finally lost at Aberdeen.

That left the ValleyCats needing only a win or a Connecticut loss entering the final day of the season. Connecticut and Aberdeen began 2.5 hours before Tri-City took on the Cyclones, but the ‘Cats still didn’t know if they needed a win as their game started, because Connecticut forced extra innings. The Tigers twice threatened to make the Tri-City game decisive, scoring in the 11th and twice in the 13th. They entered Sunday with a league-best 19-10 record in one-run games, and a 6-2 record in extras, and it seemed like they would pull another victory out of nowhere (Connecticut finished above .500 despite being outscored by 44 runs).

But this time, they came out on the short end of an improbable defeat. The Ironbirds put two runners on with two outs, and #3 overall draft pick Manny Machado tripled off the right-field wall. Kipp Schutz, who hit a walk-off grand slam against the ValleyCats back in July, ended Connecticut’s season with a game-winning single, and the ValleyCats were free to celebrate.

In the end, the ValleyCats won with incredible pitching. Their 17-11 August was fueled by a 2.56 ERA and 81 runs allowed, both best in the league. Vermont, meanwhile, posted a 5.45 ERA while allowing 159 runs in August, going just 9-17 to blow a seven-game lead. Connecticut fared slightly better on that end, allowing 119 runs with a 3.57 ERA, but hit a league-low .212 for the month.

All five regular starters had a terrific month, posting ERAs below 3.00. David Martinez, a mid-season conversion from the bullpen, fared the best, allowing just four earned runs in 30.1 innings and fanning a team-high 31 batters. Bobby Doran (3-1, 2.41) and Jake Buchanan (2-3, 2.97) rebounded from slow starts with strong months, while Carlos Quevedo (3-1, 2.97) and Andrew Robinson (2-2, 2.74) continued excellent seasons in August. On the other side, the mid-month additions of Marcus Nidiffer (.317/.386/.540 in August) and Austin Wates (.368/.500/.474 in 19 at-bats) boosted an offense that saw some of its regulars drop off a bit, while the arm of Chris Wallace (14/25 CS with Tri-City) proved a valuable asset behind the plate.

The ValleyCats make the playoffs, and will be a tough match for a strong Batavia squad in the first round. All four playoff teams are very good, which should make for a very fun week.

So, Chris: You were right, and I was wrong. And I couldn’t be happier.

Kevin Whitaker

Down to the Wire

It’s amazing what a difference one day makes.

24 hours ago, the ValleyCats trailed Connecticut by a half-game, had two more games remaining with the league-leading Brooklyn Cyclones and had to hope Connecticut lost at least one to Aberdeen, which they had not done in four tries. The ‘Cats had been struggling to get hits and were in danger of wasting a tremendous effort down the stretch by the league’s second-best pitching staff.

Last night, Tri-City racked up a season-high 15 hits in their biggest game of the season, beating Brooklyn in an 8-7 slugfest while the Ironbirds finally downed Connecticut. The ‘Cats regained the Stedler Division lead and can clinch the division this afternoon with a win or a Tigers loss. My playoff odds are almost an exact reverse of yesterday’s, giving the ValleyCats a 72% chance of playing baseball next week.

The playoffs will begin on Tuesday. The Stedler Division winner will host Batavia at 7 pm, then go on the road to face the Muckdogs on Wednesday and (if necessary) Thursday. Whoever wins that will take on the winner of the other series (Brooklyn vs Williamsport or Jamestown) in the championship, which begins on Saturday 9/11.

Up and down the lineup, the Tri-City bats came through last night. The two newest ValleyCats – Telvin Nash and Austin Wates – only had one hit apiece, but they were big ones. Nash led off the third inning with a fly ball over the fence in left-center, and later that frame Wates homered off the hitters’ background in center field. Wates’s first homer of the year was crushed; the wind blows out hard here on the shore, but MCU park is huge – the fence is about ten feet high and 415 feet away where Wates’ homer left the park. That was only the second homer hit off the backdrop in center field – the first came from Vermont last week.

Chris Wallace and Adam Bailey each went 3-for-5, and both have really carried the lower half of this lineup down the stretch. Wallace came through with three huge hits in the home series against Hudson Valley last week, and Bailey has 12 hits in his last six games, including a walk-off single to plate Wallace in the final game of that Hudson Valley series. Bailey was again the hero in the top of the ninth inning last night, bringing Tyler Burnett home from second with a one-out single with the eventual game-winning run.

Burnett and Jacke Healey each had two hits, as well as Ben Orloff, who reached safely in four of his five plate appearances.

We saw another well-played game last night, as neither team committed an error for the second consecutive night. Part of that is generous scoring – I would have called one of last night’s hits an error, and you could have made a case for a couple more – but both teams have still been very solid defensively.

So the ValleyCats have a couple ways to clinch the division tonight. It would be nice if Aberdeen could take out Connecticut in the afternoon and remove all suspense, but the ValleyCats could earn it themselves regardless if they beat Brooklyn.

Two of the best starting pitchers in the NYPL take the mound tonight, as Cyclones starter A.J. Pinera and the ‘Cats’ David Martinez rank fifth and sixth in ERA, respectively. Darrell Ceciliani returns to the Brooklyn lineup tonight after missing a few games to injury. VCN will have coverage of tonight’s game and the division race, and hopefully we can continue to bring you baseball next week.

Kevin Whitaker

Close Calls

The ValleyCats have outplayed Connecticut by 5.5 games this season in contests decided by more than one run. Unfortunately, in one-run games, the Tigers are 19-10 while the ‘Cats are just 8-11. That gap widened last night, as the ‘Cats fell 5-4 at Brooklyn while the Tigers won their fourth straight over Aberdeen, 7-6.

The ‘Cats generally played well last night but allowed one big inning – four runs in the fourth off starter Bobby Doran – and that proved the difference. Both teams were fairly efficient with their baserunners; the ‘Cats left four on and scored four, while the Cyclones had five of each. So Tri-City now has to win one, and almost certainly two of its next two games, and even that won’t guarantee a playoff spot. I have the ‘Cats at just 27% to make the playoffs now, with Connecticut nearly a 3-to-1 favorite. (Vermont was eliminated with its loss to Staten Island last night.)

The ValleyCats’ offense, save for a couple games at Lowell, has not played well over the last week and a half, and it can’t count on the pitching staff to continue putting up otherworldly numbers to stay in games. The ‘Cats need to get some runs against newly-converted starter Jonathan Kountis if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive.

I’ll be tweeting updates from the game.

Kevin Whitaker

Unhittable

ValleyCats starters over the past two series (six games):

34.2 IP, 27 H, 6 BB, 32 SO, 3 R (0.79 ERA)

That’s incredible.

The ‘Cats took three relatively easy victories at Lowell this season, but Connecticut held serve with a sweep of its own over Aberdeen. Nothing has come easy for the Tigers this season, who have been outscored by 42 runs (!) but are above .500. Connecticut is 18-10 in one-run games; no other team in the league is more than three games above .500 in such contests.

So the ValleyCats will have to continue pitching well this weekend against the league’s best team, the Brooklyn Cyclones. Vermont is essentially out of the race, at 2.5 games back with three remaining and two teams to catch; they need to sweep Staten Island, have Brooklyn sweep the ‘Cats and have Connecticut lose at least two of three to Aberdeen in order to win the division. But the ‘Cats need to match or better Connecticut over the final three games, and the Tigers have a weaker opponent – the same Ironbirds they just swept.

It’s do or die time for the ValleyCats, who need to put up some wins against the top team in the league. If they do, they’ll be playing playoff baseball next week. VCN will be at this weekend’s games, so stay tuned for coverage of the critical series.

Kevin Whitaker

Potential Playoff X-Factors

The ValleyCats find themselves 0.5 games up on the
Connecticut Tigers and 1.5 games up on Vermont. Assuming things stay the same,
which they might not (the ValleyCats finish up the season in Brooklyn, the best
team in the NYPL, Connecticut takes on Aberdeen, and Vermont takes on the
Yankees after finishing up their five-game series with the Cyclones),
the ‘Cats will go roaring into the playoffs and take on the Batavia Muckdogs
(who went 18-11 in August).

Batavia took two out of the three games in Troy, the only
series these two teams have played against each other so far this season. The
Muckdogs hit almost .300 in that series and drove in 20 runs against the
ValleyCats pitching staff (12 off the relievers). That’s the bad news. The good
news is, with the exception of Murillo Gouvea, the starters only gave up three
earned runs (the Muckdogs scored the only unearned run off of Tom Shirley this
season) in nine innings. Also, the ValleyCats pitching staff held, at the time,
perennial MVP candidate Nick Longmire to a .214 average. Since then Longmire
has cooled off considerably. His average dropped to .290 after batting .255 in
August. And keep in mind this series came back in early July, a little bit
before the ValleyCats started to heat up.

If the ValleyCats make it that far and want to beat the
Muckdogs it won’t take a superhero effort. Tri-City has been one of the best
teams over the past month and a half. The pitching has been phenomenal and the
hitting is really starting to come around. But it might take something extra to
beat Batavia. Here’s a list of potential x-factors:

Appologies to Ben
Orloff, Dan Adamson, Tyler Burnett, Carlos Quevedo, and Bobby Doran. They have
been consistently good all year long. They don’t count as x-factors.

Austin Wates -

Wates is one of the players the ValleyCats did not have the
first time around, and I’m sure Jim Pankovits is ecstatic that the Hokie will
be there for the playoffs if the team can get there. Wates is just a pure
athlete and does almost everything exceptionally well. Granted, this is a small
sample size, but he has adjusted well to the pro level (7-23, .309 BA, 2 2B).
He is also one of those guys that can turn a walk into a double. In eight games
so far Wates has five stolen bases, including three in one game against Lowell.
He’s a distraction for any pitcher on the mound. He makes pitchers throw over
and keep the focus on him, and that usually bodes well for ValleyCat hitters.
Wates has been on base 12 times, including walks, and has scored seven runs.
You do the math. When Wates gets on, the odds are in his favor to score.

 

Adam Bailey -

I have been waiting for Bailey to break out of his shell for
the entire season, and the playoffs would be a great time to do it. Bailey has
arguably the best power out of anyone on the ValleyCats this year (this
includes when Ben Heath was on the team). He has hit some of the furthest home
runs I’ve seen in batting practice (I’m talking clearing both walls in RF and
sometimes going over the Dunkin’ Donuts cup). Bailey is hitting only .225 in
August, but leads the team in doubles and has eight RBI. In his last three
games, Bailey is 6-13 (.462) with a double and an RBI. Bailey also gives you
flexibility at the corner outfield position and has a cannon for the arm. He can
limit the runners scoring from third on a fly ball.

 

Kik Hernandez -

I know. I know. Evan, what are you thinking? Kik has been
one of the best players on the ValleyCats this year. Here’s the thing though,
I’m not too sure he will be back for the playoffs. He sprained his ankle in a
game against Hudson Valley on August 28, and hasn’t been back since. Last we
saw him he was on crutches, which isn’t a good sign. He is only on this list because he is injured. But, if he makes it back and is 100% healthy for the playoffs the
ValleyCats could be very dangerous. You could argue Kik has been one of the
most valuable players on the ‘Cats this season with the way he has played. He’s
really started to hit lately, and has even added power. He is a great defensive
option out there at second base. We all wish Kik a speedy recovery.

 

Alex Sogard -

I felt like I needed to include a pitcher and it came down
to Sogard, David Martinez, and Mike Ness. The nod goes to Sogard because he is
a lefty. Alex has been one of the best arms out of the bullpen this year. His
versatility gives you a guy out there that can come in and stifle the
opposition if the starter isn’t doing well. Or he can come in during a pressure
situation. Before his last outing on August 29 against Hudson Valley (2.2 IP, 5
hits, 3 runs, 2 earned), he had only surrendered four hits and had not let up a
run in seven straight appearances, covering a span of 13 innings! Sogard
dominates lefties (.229 average against, 0.68 ERA), but can come in against
either side and keep batters off the basepaths.

 

The ValleyCats are on the verge of making their first
playoff appearance since 2006. If they can get there, I believe they could make
some serious noise and get to the championship.

 

Evan Valenti

Roster Additions

The ValleyCats got some help from Greeneville today: outfielder Telvin Nash and pitchers Garrett Bullock, Ryan Cole and Brian Streilein have been promoted to Tri-City. The four reinforcements will help the ValleyCats, who currently lead the Stedler Division, for this week’s pennant chase and hopefully a playoff series or two. Greeneville finished its season last night with a 31-35 record.

Nash, who was drafted out of high school in the 3rd round of the 2009 draft, led Greeneville at year’s end with a .515 slugging percentage and .863 OPS. The left fielder slugged 25 extra-base hits in an even 200 at-bats and should provide pop for a ValleyCats offense that has struggled occasionally of late. Regular playing time may be hard to come by for Nash in Tri-City, which starts four outfielders most nights (including Austin Wates at DH), but he becomes the top pinch-hitting option in games he does not start and offers more flexibility to give a regular some rest. Nash torched lefties to the tune of .300/.345/.588 this season and was named Greeneville’s MVP. Two Greeneville players have joined the ValleyCats this season – Marcus Nidiffer and Chris Wallace – and both have made major contributions already.

Bullock posted a 1.26 ERA in 43 innings at Greeneville, leading Astros relievers in both categories. The lefty was signed by Houston as an undrafted free agent out of Wake Forest last summer but has made great strides in his second season. He will add balance to a Tri-City pitching staff that leans heavily to the right – Bullock joins only Alex Sogard, Travis Blankenship and Adam Champion as left-handed options. He should be more than just a one-out matchup specialist, however; the southpaw was slightly better against lefties but held opposite-handed hitters to just a .250 batting average this season, and got more than three outs in 16 of his 21 outings this year. Bullock allowed earned runs in each of his last two outings, but allowed none in his previous 26 innings, and has fanned 40 batters with 14 walks.

Cole, who ranked second among Greeneville pitchers with a 2.83 ERA, is one of two righties joining the ValleyCats’ bullpen. Houston’s 34th-round draft pick is from the general area, calling North Syracuse home and playing his college ball at St. John’s. His August ERA jumped a bit to 4.05, but his peripherals generally held constant, except for a slight uptick in walks that he appears to have corrected. Cole held batters to just a .222 average this season, fanning 28 with eight walks. He had a very pronounced platoon split, allowing righties to hit just .184 while lefties were 100 points higher.

Streilein is also from the northeast; he hails from Point Pleasant, NJ and attended Villanova. He was drafted by Houston in the 37th round of this summer’s draft, and has allowed a .293 batting average and a 5.06 ERA this season. But he certainly has the stuff to make hitters look foolish; he fanned 35 batters in 32 innings, while allowing eight walks (four of which were intentional). Streilein also forces batters to pound the ball into the ground – a 2.81 GO/AO ratio, which led the team – and converted each of his last four save opportunities.

To make room for Nash, the ValleyCats placed Kik Hernandez on the DL. None of the pitchers have been added to the active roster yet.

In more promotional news, it appears that Ben Heath will finish the season at AA Corpus Christi.  That represents quite a rise for the catcher, who was drafted in the fifth round this summer and began the season in Tri-City.  For frame of reference, nobody from the 2009 draft reached AA until J.D. Martinez was promoted two months ago.  Heath, who led the ValleyCats in homers when he was sent to Lexington in early August, hit a terrific .290/.405/.551 with four homers and two triples (!) in less than a month in A-ball.
Kevin Whitaker

Notebook: Home Finale

The ValleyCats played their last home game of the regular season last night, and apparently they just did not want to leave Joe Bruno Stadium. We saw extra baseball for the second consecutive game; this one lasted even longer, a 14-inning thriller that took nearly four and a half hours to complete.

Monday’s result was happier for the ValleyCats, as they ended the home slate the same way it began*: a walk-off hit to score the winning run from second. Most of the 6,215 fans had left by that point – it was, after all, 11:30 on a Monday night – but the few that stayed saw the last of many thrilling games at “The Joe” this season.

Cool fact: the same umpires that were here on Opening Day also worked Monday’s finale: Carlos Torres behind the plate and Shane Livensparger on the bases.

Monday’s game was Tri-City’s longest of the season in both innings and time, lasting even longer in absolute time than the 11-inning Vermont game that saw a one-hour power delay. The ValleyCats have had tremendous pitching depth all season and needed all of it last night, going to 14 frames after playing 12 on Sunday. Aside from an uncharacteristically shaky seventh inning by lefty Travis Blankenship – who came into the game with only four earned runs but allowed three last night – the ‘Cats’ pitching was lights-out. Jake Buchanan allowed only one run – a two-out double by the ValleyCats’ nemesis, Nick Schwaner – and fanned eight batters without walking any. Brandt Walker, Jorge De Leon and Jason Chowning were more than solid in relief, seeing the go-ahead run reach third only once in the final seven innings.

Chris Wallace came up with the big hits all series, and last night was no exception. The catcher doubled home Mike Kvasnicka for the eventual deciding run in Saturday’s 2-1 victory and homered to give the ‘Cats the lead on Sunday. Last night, he came up with one out in the bottom of the 14th inning. Both pitchers had retired the side in order in their last inning and it looked like the game might last forever, but Wallace smoked a ball over the shortstop’s head all the way to the wall in left-center. Adam Bailey then drove a liner to the right-center-field gap – his second hit in as many at-bats against the left-handed pitcher – and Wallace came home just inches ahead of the tag with the game-winning run.

Austin Wates played the field for the first time with Tri-City, patrolling center field and giving Dan Adamson a day off. He made a terrific sliding grab on a hard liner deep in the gap in the top of the 13th, which eventually saved the game for the ‘Cats. Wates also doubled in his first at-bat and hit a couple other balls hard, but right at fielders. He was responsible for the game-tying run in the seventh inning: he drew a one-out walk, stole second and advanced to third on an overthrow, then scored on a Tyler Burnett single.

The ValleyCats set a new single-season attendance record for the seventh consecutive year, bringing 155,315 fans to the park in 2010 – an average of 4,313 per game. Last night’s crowd of 6,215 was the fourth-largest in franchise history. Thanks to everyone who came to a game, followed this blog or helped in any other way to make this season special.

While Monday’s game certainly was not a must-win game in the literal sense, the ‘Cats would have been in a poor position, facing a 1.5-game deficit and two teams to chase with less than a week to play. Instead, they’re right in the thick of things in the Stedler Division, a half-game behind Vermont and a half-game ahead of Connecticut.

I’ve tweaked my playoff odds slightly, deciding to regress each team’s performance to the mean a little bit to account for the uncertainty in this league. This brings down the ValleyCats’ odds a little bit – they are the “best” team, by my simulation, because they have the best run differential – to the benefit of Vermont, whose half-game lead becomes a bit more meaningful. Connecticut dropped a game to both teams with the loss, and is now about a 1-in-5 shot, while the ValleyCats are nominally favorites but essentially a toss-up with Vermont.

Updated odds through games of 9/3:

Tri-City: 27%

Vermont: 0%

Connecticut: 73%

Kevin Whitaker

Notebook: Another Attendance Record

Recent visitors to Joe Bruno Stadium have seen their share of excitement: the ValleyCats have played six consectutive one-run games at home. They’ve won three, improving their record in one-run contests to a respectably 9-12, but although they had their chances, the ‘Cats couldn’t pull one out last night.

5,445 fans showed up at the ballpark last night – enough to break the single-season attendance record for the seventh consecutive season – and they certainly got their money’s worth. The early Sunday start time of 5 pm proved to be a big plus, as most of the fans were still there when the game was decided nearly four hours later. The ‘Cats surrendered a twelfth-inning run and lost 5-4, falling to 3-8 this season in extra innings.

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Six runners reached for the home team from the ninth inning on, but the ValleyCats weren’t able to bring any of them around to score. Marcus Nidiffer led off the eleventh inning with a double and stood on third with one out, but Jacke Healey’s fly ball was too shallow to tag on and Ben Orloff also flew out to center. A 12th-inning double by Tyler Burnett – who also doubled in the ninth – gave the ‘Cats some hope of tying the game and forcing more baseball, but closer Austin Hubbard bore down and retired the next two batters to end the game.

The ‘Cats may look back on this one with regret. Vermont lost at Aberdeen, so if the ValleyCats had been able to push one of those runners across, they would have been all alone in first place for the first time this season. Instead, they currently sit in third place, a half-game back of both the Lake Monsters and Connecticut. I still project the ValleyCats as a slight favorite, due to their still-strong run differential and the fact that they have three games remaining with Lowell, but it’s pretty close to a three-team tossup: Tri-City 38%, Connecticut 33%, Vermont 29%. If the ‘Cats had won, they would be above 60% right now. (Connecticut was the big beneficiary, seeing its odds rise by more than 20% after last night’s games.)

Bobby Doran gave up a run on a pair of two-out hits in the first inning, and for a minute I feared we might be seeing a repeat performance from Tuesday, when he allowed nine hits to the Tigers. Instead, he settled down and did not allow another score in his five innings, sending the Renegades down in order in the final two frames.

Murillo Gouvea opened the season quite poorly, and after allowing four runs in a little more than an inning against Brooklyn in mid-July, his ERA stood at 12.71. Many of us wondered if Gouvea would be sent down to a lower level to get straightened out. But whatever pitching coach Gary Ruby did to Gouvea certainly worked, as he’s allowed just three runs in 19.1 innings since. The Brazilian righty was lights-out last night, allowing only one hit in 3.1 innings and fanning eight Renegades – including four in the 11th inning, when Dio Luis reached after whiffing at a wild pitch. Gouvea now ranks second on the team with 50 strikeouts, and he’s thrown less than half as many innings as the team leader, Carlos Quevedo.

Instead, the ValleyCats’ loss came due to poor command by a couple unlikely sources: Alex Sogard and Michael Ness. Sogard had not allowed a run in the previous four weeks, a stretch spanning 14 innings. But he got into trouble right away in the sixth, walking Nick Schwaner and allowing a double to Steven Tinoco. (Schwaner and Tinoco killed the ‘Cats last night, going a combined 6-for-9 with three walks.) A line drive found Orloff’s glove and Sogard froze Mayo Acosta with a curveball, and it looked like he might escape the jam. But Dio Luis drove a 2-1 pitch to the right-center-field wall, driving in two and scoring himself as the ‘Cats kicked the ball around.

Ness had not issued a walk in three full weeks and had only six on the season, but he struggled to find the plate in the 12th inning last night. He hit Chris Winder with his first pitch of the night – Ness’s first HBP of the year – and then issued two-out walks to Schwaner and Tinoco. (With bases open and the go-ahead run on third, he was wisely being careful to both batters, particularly Tinoco, once he fell behind in the count.) Derek Dietrich then lined a shot to first that Nidiffer gloved but could not catch cleanly, and the Renegades had the run they needed.

The ValleyCats have had a lot of trouble figuring out the Hudson Valley pitching staff, scoring only 12 runs in five games. The lone hitter who seems to have it figured out is Chris Wallace, who doubled to score the eventual game-winning run on Saturday and came up big again last night. Wallace scored Mike Kvasnicka with a fifth-inning homer – the ‘Cats’ first hit of the game – that was crushed to right-center. Wallace later walked and laid down a nice sacrifice in the eleventh.

Burnett finished the game with a pair of doubles, which will hopefully give him a bit of a spark – he had only three hits in his previous 30 at-bats. Dan Adamson has also been slumping a bit – one for his last 14, and the hit was a routine grounder last night that Elias Otero played too deep on – and will get a rest tonight.

Adamson’s spot in centerfield will be taken by Austin Wates, who made his first appearance last night since being hit on the hand in Tuesday’s contest. Wates pinch-hit in the ninth and smacked a hard line drive with a man on, but it went right at Otero, who had moved to second base. Tonight marks his first appearance in the field with the ValleyCats.

I can’t believe it’s this time of year already, but tonight marks the last regular-season game at “The Joe.” Hopefully the ‘Cats make the playoffs and come back here next week for some postseason baseball.

Kevin Whitaker

Three-Horse Race

Playoff Odds update, through 8/31 games: ‘Cats 57%, Vermont 16%, Connecticut 27%

Well, this week didn’t go quite as expected.

After the ValleyCats defeated Connecticut for the fourth time in seven days on Tuesday, it looked like a two-horse race in the Stedler Division: the ‘Cats were hot, Vermont was treading water and Connecticut was fading quickly, three games out.

But everything went right for the Tigers after that. They swept a three-game set at Vermont, and the ‘Cats were swept at Hudson Valley. The Tigers, who had the league’s worst offense entering the series, dropped 21 runs on the Lake Monsters and won the last two games handily. Now they are right back at the top of the division, with momentum and six home games coming up, tied with Vermont and a half-game ahead of Tri-City. It is officially a three-team race.

Momentum would seem to make Connecticut the current favorite, but we just saw how quickly momentum can change. The Tigers now host the juggernaut that is the Brooklyn Cyclones – who, coincidentally enough, will then finish the season with five games against Vermont and three with Tri-City – before finishing with Aberdeen. Vermont still has to play eleven games in the final nine days (two makeups with Brooklyn, although one is the completion of the contest that was suspended in the 12th inning last week) – and, worse, all eleven will be on the road.

The ValleyCats have the easiest remaining opponent of the group when they travel to Lowell next week, but they’ll have to get through three more games with the Renegades, not exactly the team they wanted to see right now. Hudson Valley has won four straight and recently passed the ‘Cats for the fourth-best run differential. The Renegades match up well with the Tri-City offense: the ‘Cats are a very patient bunch, but Hudson Valley has allowed the fewest walks and hit the fewest batters this season.

Ultimately, the ValleyCats still look like the slight favorite, based on the schedule and (more importantly) their play to date. Although they are in third place, they have easily the best run differential of the group (TC +24, VER -12, CT -33), which means they should be expected to play the best from here on out. But time is running out, and they’ll probably need to beat Hudson Valley a couple times this weekend to remain the favorite.

Updated playoff odds:

Tri-City: 41%
Vermont: 33%
Connecticut: 26%

Kevin Whitaker

Sweeps Notebook

The ValleyCats pretty much knocked Connecticut out of the playoff race, taking all four games from the Tigers in a one-week span. Even after defeating Vermont last night to pull within two games, Connecticut’s odds of reaching the playoffs are still in the 2-3% range. Usually, I find claims of “must-win” games this far out to be hyperbole, but Connecticut probably can’t make the playoffs unless it takes the next two to sweep the Lake Monsters.

Bobby Doran was coming off five spectacular outings (29 IP, 5 ER combined), but didn’t have his best stuff on Tuesday. He uncharacteristically left his fastball up and in hittable places often. Back when he was throwing low-90s early in the year, he might have been able to get away with that command, but last night he was 87-89 (and lower for the first couple batters, though that could have been a radar gun issue) and gave up nine hits. Three doubles in the fourth inning led to two runs, tying the game at 3-3.

Doran went to his curveball often and early in counts, getting a pair of strikeouts on hooks in the third inning. As usual, Doran didn’t walk anybody; he has allowed only seven unintentional free passes this year, for the second-best walk rate in the league (behind only teammate Carlos Quevedo).

Second baseman Alex Nunez made a pair of terrific plays in the early innings. He robbed Ben Orloff of a base hit, diving fully extended to his left and just barely snaring a grounder. He also made a great play coming in on a grounder off the pitcher’s foot making a quick throw while falling to get Mike Kvasnicka on a bang-bang play.

Dan Adamson continued to demonstrate his ridiculous power, getting a 1-2 curveball in the first inning and absolutely crushing it to left field. The blast landed right underneath the scoreboard, some 410 feet from home plate.

Travis Blankenship came on for Doran in the fifth with two outs and two runners in scoring position, and needed just one pitch to get out of the jam. Blankenship fanned lefty Eric Roof in the next inning with three curveballs away and continues to look very strong out of the bullpen.

Scary moment in the fifth: Austin Wates was hit on the right wrist by a 3-2 pitch by Josue Carreno. Wates went down quickly and stayed there for a couple minutes, eventually leaving the game. Things worked out pretty well, however. Pinch-runner Wilton Infante stole second and eventually scored on an infield single by birthday boy Kik&eacute Hernandez, while X-rays on Wates were negative.

Wates, who has a reputation as a terrific hitter, has been performing as advertised since joining the ValleyCats. We watched his first round of BP and it was not pretty – he was slicing balls around the cage, nearly hitting the visitors’ clubhouse a few times, and only squared up one or two well – but he needed no time to adjust, getting five hits in ten at-bats before leaving Tuesday’s game. He sat last night and I don’t know when he will rejoin the lineup, but this does not look like a serious setback.

Carreno came out after the fifth inning and had already thrown 90 pitches. I believe that’s the most we’ve seen from a starter at JBS this year.

Blankenship wasn’t the only reliever to have success on Tuesday. Brandt Walker wasn’t throwing quite as hard as usual – 92-93 instead of 95-ish – but got three strikeouts in 1.2 perfect innings. Meanwhile, Alex Sogard was consistently throwing 92 mph, as hard as I’ve seen all year. Sogard fanned the first four hitters he faced and then got four ground balls; two went through the left side for hits, but the next one was a tailor-made double play ball to escape the 10th.

The ValleyCats stranded seven runners between the 7th and 9th innings, any of which would have won the game. They loaded the bases in the ninth on a two-out rally that did not involve a hit; Ramon Lebron, consistently at 95-96 mph, walked Kik&eacute to load the bases but got Adamson to swing through a fastball up in the zone to force extras. Lebron struck out the side in the tenth inning and got two quick outs in the eleventh. But a walk to Ben Orloff sparked another two-out rally that again did not involve a hit; Hernandez reached base on a throwing error by shortstop Brett Anderson, and Burnett’s grounder went off Anderson’s glove into left field (his fourth error of the game) to bring home Orloff with the winning run.

Kevin Whitaker

Updated Playoff Odds

I’ll update this post with the current odds daily. 

Tuesday marked a turning point, as my system now sees the ‘Cats as the favorite.  The rainout hurt Vermont, which won’t get to make up its game with Lowell, while the ValleyCats pretty much knocked Connecticut out of the race by completing another sweep.

Through games of 9/3:

Tri-City: 27%
Vermont: 0%

Connecticut: 73%
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Warning: If you don’t like numbers, you won’t find much in this post (or the next) worth reading.

This is an update to my playoff odds post from earlier this week. I’ve corrected a few misconceptions regarding tie-breakers and makeup games and made my model a bit more robust.

The biggest error I had was regarding makeup games for early-season rainouts. For some reason, I was under the impression that rained-out games would be replayed at the end of the season if they affected the pennant race. That is not the case. The ValleyCats’ rained-out games with Jamestown from July and with Aberdeen today will not be played, nor will Connecticut’s game with Staten Island today. Vermont has missed three-plus games so far, but can make up the Brooklyn and Hudson Valley games, plus yesterday’s suspended extra-inning Brooklyn game, because they play those teams again this year. Its rained-out game against Batavia, however, will not be replayed.

The other place I errored was with tie-breakers. I assumed that ties would be broken with a head-to-head game, but that is not the case. Instead, the tiebreakers go as follow: winning percentage, then divisional record, then run differential. It is rare that a tie will go even that far – I predict only a 0.5% chance that run differential comes into play.

The last update is an improvement to my model: an adjustment for home-field advantage. Home teams this year are 226-191 (.542), making home-field advantage a fairly significant factor. Thus, I gave teams playing in their home park a 4% boost in each game*. Note that I said “playing in their home park” – some of the makeup games (i.e., Vermont vs Brooklyn) will not be played at the same place they were initially scheduled; therefore, Vermont will be playing as the “home” team in Brooklyn. In such a case, Brooklyn would get the home-field advantage bump – research has shown that it is playing in a familiar park, not having the last at-bat, that provides the home team with an advantage.

*VERY technical note: In an ideal world, this home-field boost would not be linear – it has a smaller effect with a more lopsided matchup. To illustrate with an extreme example, if a team had a 4% chance of winning on a neutral field, we would not expect it to have a 0% chance of winning on the road. But I couldn’t figure out an easy way to make this effect non-linear, and I expect that all realistic matchups – certainly the ones that I am predicting here – are evenly-matched enough that it doesn’t make much of a difference.

(If anybody is following my work closely, I gave Vermont a 35% chance of winning its suspended game against Brooklyn, down 8-7 with two on and one out in extras. I got that number from this win probability table.)

The numbers:

Tri-City: 41.6% 

Vermont: 53.7% 
Connecticut: 4.6%

The ValleyCats continue to improve their playoff hopes. Keep in mind that these numbers still don’t take into account momentum – June games count as much as August games do. If you think recent results should carry more weight, you should give the ValleyCats a somewhat better chance than listed here. (For what it’s worth, I do think recent results should count more, given how much rosters and players change in this league, but I haven’t come up with a good way to separate recent performance from schedule effects.)

Kevin Whitaker

ValleyCats Playoff Odds

Note: I have learned that some of my assumptions regarding tie-breakers and makeup games were inaccurate.  I’ll update later today with those revised.

Update as of Sunday afternoon: Each team split its last two games, and the playoff results predictably changed little.  I have the ValleyCats at 36.13%, Vermont at 51.40% and Connecticut at 12.46%.

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We know the ValleyCats are in the playoff hunt. Tri-City is 1.5 games behind Vermont and a half-game back of Connecticut in the Stedler Division, playing its best baseball as we head towards the home stretch. But what kind of chance do the ‘Cats really have of reaching the postseason?

I put together a quick-and-dirty simulation for the rest of the season in an attempt to answer that question. I’ll try not to go into too many details about how I made the simulation, because I don’t expect that many of you care; leave a comment or email me if you want to know more. But a quick and fairly technical summary: I first figured each team’s pythagorean record, which estimates a team’s performance going forward from its current run differential. Then I plugged those records into Bill James’s log5 formula to figure the odds that each team wins each game. I then used these odds to simulate the Tri-City, Vermont and Connecticut games for the rest of the season*, and played out the season 1,000,000 times. (This task is made a lot easier by the fact that the wild card will almost certainly not come out of the Stedler Division, so I only had to worry about three teams.)

*I included makeups for games that have been lost to rain this year – Tri-City vs Jamestown, Vermont vs Batavia and Staten Island – because they will be played if they affect the pennant race at the season’s end. (My mistake – these games will not be made up.)

Here were the results:

TRI wins:  30.3244
VER wins:  45.3815
CT wins:  8.3277
TRI + VER tie:  9.5976
TRI + CT tie:  2.2061
CT + VER tie:  2.9302
3-way tie:  1.2325

That comes out to a 16% chance that we’ll end up in some sort of tie. The same log5 process I used above can create odds that each team wins a head-to-head play-in game (there is no play-in game; the tiebreaker is divisional record), allowing us to estimate the full odds that each team makes the playoffs (for simplicity’s sake, I assumed that each team would win the three-way tie one-third of the time):

Tri-City: 37.38%
Vermont: 51.83%
Connecticut: 10.80%

I was surprised that Connecticut’s odds are so low. But if you look at run differential, the Tigers just haven’t been very good this season. They rank dead last in runs scored and have a worse run differential than all but two teams; their Pythagorean record pegs Connecticut as a .426 team, rather than a .500 one. The Tigers are 10-5 in one-run games, and will probably not be as lucky going forward.

The ValleyCats have a better run differential and expected record than Vermont, but the 1.5-game edge in the standings is enough for Vermont to remain the favorite. Still, I can assure you that their playoff odds are as high as they’ve been all season.

Two major caveats come with these results. The first is that my simulation does not currently discriminate between home and road games, treating them all equally. I will probably build in an adjustment for this in the next edition of my playoff odds. The second is less clear-cut. Right now, all of my predictions are based on full-season data, so games in June count just as much as games in August. I am not sure if this is optimal or not, particularly in a league where players get promoted relatively frequently; when I do this again, I’ll consider weighting recent results more heavily. It clearly makes a difference in this race – Vermont is playing terribly of late, while the ValleyCats are hot. If you think recent results are more predictive than early-season games, you should consider Tri-City somewhat more likely to make the playoffs than these numbers, and the opposite for Vermont. 

Kevin Whitaker
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